NERAZZURRO1990

Hello everyone, I'm mainly interested in MLB—maybe some of you remember me from when I sold tips on Kolemdva... I've been following MLB since 2008 and actually bet on it until the infamous Babiš banned betting abroad. Naturally, I stopped because betting on MLB with the low odds offered by Czech bookmakers made no sense. I only do pure value betting (there's no other way with MLB), single bets … Show more

Hello everyone, I'm mainly interested in MLB—maybe some of you remember me from when I sold tips on Kolemdva... I've been following MLB since 2008 and actually bet on it until the infamous Babiš banned betting abroad. Naturally, I stopped because betting on MLB with the low odds offered by Czech bookmakers made no sense. I only do pure value betting (there's no other way with MLB), single bets (max 2-leg parlays), and achieving a 10% ROI on American sports in general is insanely difficult. At Pinnacle Sports, where the lines were 1.962 - 1.926 (depending on the opportunity), it was a completely different level, and profit was achievable. So logically, where the line was 1.85, profit was nearly impossible—meaning betting with our local bookies was pointless. But time passed, and our bookmakers have significantly improved their odds, so it's time to get back in the saddle... especially since health issues are forcing me to change jobs, and maybe this is the right opportunity. My motivation and enthusiasm are huge, and I love MLB. During the season, I also follow the NFL and big CSGO tournaments (which I used to play a lot)... with some occasional appearances of other baseball leagues too. Anyway, when it comes to odds and value betting, the most important thing is to bet the highest odds on the market. If I post a tip and the odds drop by, say, 0.10 for an 8/10 bet... I recommend not betting anymore—the value is gone, and it's no longer worth it. For a 9/10 tip, I’d reduce the stake to 8/10 with such a drop. I'm not selling guarantees or "sure bets," just value, which pays off long-term. The key is bankroll management—never bet more than 2% per wager (for me, 8/10 = 1%). Just like MLB teams, I'll have bad and good streaks, but what matters is the final result at the end of the season, and I'll do my best to stay profitable. Expect plenty of MLB tips—the season is long, with each team playing 162 regular-season games (15 games practically every day for 7 months a year)... As for timing, I’ll try to post tips from morning until midnight on the same day, never overnight when most of you are asleep. The biggest advantage of my tips is that they're focused on the US (MLB and NFL), where even our bookmakers keep strong odds, and even under heavy market pressure, the drop is never extreme... because they still follow Asia or Vegas, and betting limits for these sports are the highest. I won’t sugarcoat it—ROI by the end of the season will likely not exceed 10%, but with the number of bets we can place, we’ll make a profit! And trust me, when I hit a rough patch, I analyze why... Nerazzurro (And one final tip: If I'm betting a line, like "Total Runs Over 9" at odds of 1.96 (currently only offered by Fortuna), you can also bet the same at Tipsport—split your bet between "Over 8.5" (1.78) and "Over 9.5" (2.18) to match the payout. For example, a 4000 CZK bet (8/10 stake) on "Over 9" (1.96 at Fortuna) is the same as betting 2247 CZK on "Over 8.5" (1.78 at Tipsport) + 1753 CZK on "Over 9.5" (2.18 at Tipsport). The payout is nearly identical, and if exactly 9 runs are scored, you get your stake back in both cases.) Show less